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Ups and Downs
Feb / 2007
South and North Korea share the same political and strategic aim of integration and eventual unification. However, the �nuclear tension� on the peninsula appears to have slowed down progress on this front temporarily.

For almost 20 years after the 1950-53 Korean War, relations between North and South Korea were minimal and very strained. Official contact did not occur until 1971, beginning with Red Cross contacts and family reunification projects in 1985. In the early 1990s, relations between the two countries improved with the 1991 South-North Basic Agreement, which acknowledged that reunification was the goal of both governments, and the 1992 Joint Declaration of Denuclearization. However, divergent positions on the process of reunification and North Korean weapons programs, compounded by South Korea's tumultuous domestic politics and the 1994 death of North Korean leader Kim Il sung, contributed to a cycle of warming and cooling of relations.
Relations improved again following the 1997 Presidential election of Mr. Kim Dae-jung. His "Sunshine Policy" of engagement with the North Korea set the stage for the historic June 2000 inter-Korean summit between President Kim and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. President Kim was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2000 for the policy, but the prize was somewhat tarnished by revelations of a $500 million dollar "payoff" to North Korea that immediately preceded the summit.
Since then, there has been a marked improvement in the relations between both countries. At the summit, the South and the North agreed on the principles of the first stage of reunification, as well as to pursue exchange and cooperation in various areas and initiate the reunion of separated families. They also agreed to arrange a reciprocal visit of Chairman Kim Jong-il to Seoul. As a result of such agreements, there has been a dramatic transformation in the inter-Korean relations, although the reciprocal visit is yet to materialize.
Exchange has been carried out in all areas such as economy, society, culture and sports. An industrial complex that was financed by South Korea has been built on North Korean land, and the factories there have already begun to produce goods. Roads and railroads are being constructed across borders to reconnect the Peninsula once again. Undoubtedly, the most significant change that we have witnessed is the change in public sentiment between the South and the North.
However, every time it appears that new ground is being broken, the relationship stumbles on minor setbacks. The latest is the nuclear test conducted by North Korea on October 9th last year. While the immediate developments suggested that the relationship between North and South Korea stood on shaky ground, there has been some progress again
Tense History
The genesis of the current problem can be traced back to October 2002 when the North Korean acknowledged a covert program to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. Following this, the United States, along with China, proposed multilateral talks among the concerned parties to deal with this issue. At the urging of China and its neighbors, North Korea agreed to meet with China and the United States in April 2003. In August of that year, North Korea agreed to attend Six-Party Talks aimed at ending its pursuit of nuclear weapons that added South Korea, Japan, and Russia to the table. Two more rounds of Six-Party Talks were held in February and June of 2004. At the third round, the U.S. put forward a comprehensive proposal aimed at completely, verifiably, and irreversibly eliminating North Korea's nuclear weapons programs.
A fourth round of talks was held in July 2005 and spanned a period of 20 days between July and September. All parties agreed to a Joint Statement of Principles on September 19, in which, among other things, the six parties unanimously reaffirmed the goal of verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in a peaceful manner. In the Joint Statement, North Korea committed to abandoning all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs and returning, at an early date, to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and to IAEA safeguards.
The Joint Statement also committed the U.S. and other parties to certain actions as North Korea denuclearized. The U.S. offered a security assurance, specifying that it had no nuclear weapons on South Korean territory and no intention to attack or invade it with nuclear or other weapons. Finally, the U.S. and North Korea were to take steps to normalize relations, subject it's implementing the denuclearization pledge and resolving other longstanding concerns. Despite the agreement of all parties, to return to the negotiating table in early 2006, North Korea, since November 2005, refused to return to the talks, citing U.S. action against its alleged illicit banking activities.
The talks were stalled for 13 months, before North Korea agreed to resume the negotiations in the aftermath of the United Nations sanctions resolution which followed the nuclear test conducted in October.

Signs of Progress
The latest round of six-party talks to end North Korea's nuclear weapons program came to a close in end-December with no substantial progress and no date set for the next meeting. The five-day session, which began December 18th in the Chinese capital, was dominated by a heated debate between the two antagonists on major issues, particularly the financial sanctions imposed on the communist country regarding a Macau-based bank since September last year. As expected, North Korea started with a demand for removal of the U.S.-imposed sanctions, but the U.S. insisted on the North's dismantlement of the nuclear program first before it gets economic and security guarantees.
Host China issued a chairman's statement acknowledging that there were no breakthroughs in the talks which resumed after a 13-month hiatus, but said the next meeting will be held at "the earliest opportunity."
Since then there have been signs that progress is being made, when the United States and North Korea held direct bilateral talks in Berlin from January 16th to 18th . In appearance, these negotiations were supposed to function as a subset of the six-party talks. The Berlin meeting, however, was highly significant as it was the first occasion since the start of the first Bush Administration where high-ranking officials from the two countries got together to discuss the nuclear issue.
At the negotiating table, the U.S. seemed to back off from its adamant insistence on disarming the North while reportedly offering a sweet package deal. In response, the North Korean official media reported the negotiation was productive. It remains to be seen how much progress is made at the next round of Six Party Talks.
Political Backdrop
Under President Roh Moo-hyun, South Korea has simultaneously sought the elimination of the nuclear weapons through the Six Party Talks and pursued a policy of reconciliation known as the "Peace and Prosperity Policy." By engaging with North Korea through economic projects such as the Gaesong Industrial Complex, South Korea hopes to invigorate the North Korean economy and engineer a gradual, long-term unification process. (More details in the articles that follow).
The South Korean government has long believed and claimed that a second inter-Korean summit would greatly help ease tension between the divided Koreas while also contributing to international efforts to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions.
However, a political tug-of-war over this issue has ensued among ruling and opposition forces as they head into a presidential election. While an inter-Korean summit is considered a valuable diplomatic and political tool for the ruling Uri party to wield, it has been a sore spot for the conservative Grand National Party. The GNP deems it is not time for an inter-Korean summit and worries that an attempt to hold one could rattle the popularity ratings, which are currently tilted heavily in its favor.
Uri Party leader Mr. Kim Geun-tae raised eyebrows of opposition members by openly backing a second inter-Korean summit.
"I hope that diverse diplomatic efforts will persist in holding an inter-Korean summit and working out a peace treaty among the two Koreas and the U.S. government," he said in a party meeting. He also welcomed former President Kim Dae-jung's remarks that he would be willing to go to North Korea.
"I urge that the government to increase efforts to send the special delegate to North Korea as soon as possible," he said.
Progressive observers contend that another inter-Korean summit could help break the deadlocked negotiations on North Korea's nuclear problem. In an annual report outlining policy for this year, the Unification Ministry said, "In cases of North Korea's nuclear situation sustaining long-term, the government will push to send a high-ranking delegation or arrange a top leaders' meeting to create a breakthrough."
The GNP sturdily lashed out at any attempts by President Roh to embark on an inter-Korean summit. "It is neither right nor effective for the president, who is in his last year in office, to go to an inter-Korean summit. It is a conspiracy to regain the reins of power," senior GNP member Lee Jae-oh said at a party's meeting.
In the latest development, though, President Roh confirmed that his government will not make any effort for an inter-Korean summit until the Six Party Talks are successfully concluded.
He also asked the media to abstain from speculating about a summit until any visible signs surface and expressed deep regret over the opposition parties' demand that he refrain from pushing for an inter-Korean summit ahead of December's presidential polls.
Future Prospects
With the Presidential elections to be held in South Korea this year and the Six Party Talks reaching a critical stage, many experts are of the opinion that the in 2007 the relationship between the two Koreas may be more turbulent.
"This is because factors which exert direct influence on the Korean Peninsula and the South-North relationship have become more complex than ever. Factors, from both within and outside the country, are likely to operate dynamically to influence the situation on the peninsula," said . Prof. Nam Sung-wook, Professor, Department of North Korean Studies, Korea University, in a recent article.
In 2007, South-North relations will repeat the characteristic traits of inter-Korean ties and will be significantly influenced by South Korean politics. These factors are so closely intertwined that one's effect on the other will be manifested in both entities, as if the two are not separate but one and the same, he predicted.
"The U.S. government would have to find ways to deal with this (nuclear) issue more flexibly while the North Korean side, too, has to realize that it has to resolve this problem to help establish peace on the Korean Peninsula," Prof. Lee said.

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Genesis of Conflict
Throughout its history, Korea has been invaded, influenced, and fought over by its larger neighbors. Korea was under Mongolian occupation from 1231 until the early 14th century. The unifier of Japan, Hideyoshi, launched major invasions of Korea in 1592 and 1597. When Western powers focused "gunboat" diplomacy on Korea in the mid-19th century, Korea's rulers adopted a closed-door policy, earning Korea the title of "Hermit Kingdom." Though the Choson dynasty recognized China's hegemony in East Asia, Korea was independent until the late 19th century. At that time, China sought to block growing Japanese influence on the Korean Peninsula and Russian pressure for commercial gains there. The competition produced the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95 and the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05.
Japan emerged victorious from both wars and in 1910 annexed Korea as part of the growing Japanese empire. Japanese colonial administration was characterized by tight control from Tokyo and ruthless efforts to supplant Korean language and culture. Organized Korean resistance during the colonial era was generally unsuccessful, and Japan remained firmly in control of the Peninsula until the end of World War II in 1945. The surrender of Japan in August 1945 led to the immediate division of Korea into two occupation zones, with the U.S. administering the southern half of the peninsula and the U.S.S.R. taking over the area to the north of the 38th parallel. This division was meant to be temporary until the U.S., U.K., Soviet Union, and China could arrange a trusteeship administration.
In December 1945, a conference was convened in Moscow to discuss the future of Korea. A 5-year trusteeship was discussed, and a joint Soviet-American commission was established. The commission met intermittently in Seoul but deadlocked over the issue of establishing a national government. In September 1947, with no solution in sight, the United States submitted the Korean question to the UN General Assembly. Initial hopes for a unified, independent Korea quickly evaporated as the politics of the Cold War and domestic opposition to the trusteeship plan resulted in the 1948 establishment of two separate nations with diametrically opposed political, economic, and social systems. Elections were held in the South under UN observation, and on August 15, 1948, the Republic of Korea (South Korea) was established. Syngman Rhee, a nationalist leader, became the first president.
On September 9, 1948, the North established the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) headed by then-Premier Kim Il Sung, who had been fostered and supported by the U.S.S.R.
Almost immediately after establishment of North Korea, guerrilla warfare, border clashes, and naval battles erupted between the two Koreas. While the majority opinion insists that North Korean forces launched a massive surprise attack and invaded South Korea on June 25, 1950, others insist that North Korea was attacked first.
The United Nations, in accordance with the terms of its Charter, engaged in its first collective action and established the UN Command (UNC), to which 16 member nations sent troops and assistance. Next to South Korea, the United States contributed the largest contingent of forces to this international effort. The battle line fluctuated north and south, and after large numbers of Chinese "People's Volunteers" intervened to assist the North, the battle line stabilized north of Seoul near the 38th parallel.
Armistice negotiations began in July 1951, but hostilities continued until July 27, 1953. On that date, at Panmunjom, the military commanders of the North Korean People's Army, the Chinese People's Volunteers, and the UNC signed an armistice agreement. Neither the United States nor South Korea is a signatory to the armistice per se, although both adhere to it through the UNC. No comprehensive peace agreement has replaced the 1953 armistice pact.